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Cromford Report – October 2015

For the monthly period ending September 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $132.42 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is 0.1% below the $132.53 we now measure for August 15. Our forecast range was $128.92 to $134.18 with a mid-point of $131.55. Last month’s mid-point forecast within 87c of the actual price per square foot measured and well within the 90% confidence interval.

On September 15 the pending listings for all areas & types showed an average list $/SF of $137.84, 1.8% above the reading for August 15. Among those pending listings we have 87.2% normal, 4.7% in REOs and 8.1% in short sales and pre-foreclosures.

Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on October 15 is $134.68, which is 1.7% higher than the September 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $131.99 to $137.37.

We experienced considerable seasonal price weakness this summer but our forecast this month is for this weakness to end and be reversed over the coming 30 days.

Cromford 201510