The Cromford® Market Index continues to rise, and almost all of that is due to falling supply rather than rising demand. Supply is so low in ceratin low-cost areas that pricing is moving up much faster in these spots than for the market as a whole. Supply gets much stronger as we move up-market, but the overall number of days of inventory is down to 114, the lowest number since January 9. 2014. The long term average since January 2001 is 157. Since days of inventory is a rather slow-moving measurement, it somewhat understates how much the supply has fallen. A much faster measure is months of supply, although this has the disadvantage of being very seasonal. At the moment we have 2.9 months of supply overall, with the long term average being 5.3 months. The last time we saw 2.9 months was September 3, 2013.
There are no signs of the seller’s advantage weakening for the bulk of the market. Certain luxury markets, particularly Arcadia, Biltmore and Central Scottsdale are also starved of supply, but many areas that are expensive and further from the airport still have plentiful supply, so upward pricing pressure in these more distant places is far lower.