For the overall market the Cromford® Supply Index has settled down around 73,which is 27% below normal, having fallen from a peak of 76 in mid December. The Cromford® Demand Index has barely moved in the last four months, currently 1% below normal around 99.
After the strong December we were tentatively hoping for stronger demand figures in January, but it seems that was hoping in vain. Pending listings are up 16% from the start of year. Last year we saw a 22% increase in the same period and were not particularly impressed with that, so January this year is really quite weak for listings going pending. We can turn to the UCBs (including the CCBS listings) and see that they have increased by 20% so far this year. Last year it was 24%.
Maybe buyers have been unsettled by the abysmal performance of the stock market. Maybe not. Either way these are not statistics that suggest buyers are getting 2016 off to a strong start.
The closed listing numbers are a bit better; so far we are about 12% ahead of last year, but that reflects contracts signed in 2015, so this is not what we are really looking for.
In February 2015 we saw an unexpectedly strong surge in contract signings after the end of January, and maybe we will see a similar phenomenon in 2016. We will report here as soon as we see something (or not).