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Cromford February 2017

For the monthly period ending January 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $144.94 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is up a mere 0.1% from the $144.85 we now measure for December 15. Our forecast range midpoint was $145.26, with a 90% confidence range of $142.35 to $148.17, so this month the actual pricing came in just 32 cents below the mid-point.

On January 15 the pending listings for all areas & types shows an average list $/SF of $150.71, up 1.6% from the reading for December 15. Among those pending listings we have 91.2% normal, 3.4% in REOs and 3.2% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. This mix contains more distressed homes than last month.

Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on February 15 is $146.00, which is 0.7% above the January 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $143.08 to $148.92.

Last month we suggested that pricing looked likely to barely change until the end of the year. In fact we have seen little change all the way from the start of November to mid-January.

This situation seems more likely to change over the next 3 months with an upward trend re-emerging.